By Hernan Nessi
BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) – Economic activity in Argentina likely grew in March year-over-year, a Reuters poll of market analysts showed on Tuesday, rebounding from a drop logged in the year-ago month.
The median forecast from 16 analysts sees economic activity expanding 6.4% in March, the fifth-consecutive month of year-on-year growth. Estimates ranged from 3% to 7.8% growth.
The uptick would reverse the 8.4% contraction in Argentina, Latin America’s third-largest economy, in March 2024.
“In March, the Argentine economy continued to grow,” Eugenio Mari, chief economist at the Foundation for Liberty and Progress, said. “However, uncertainty in the month, particularly surrounding negotiations with the International Monetary Fund and doubts about a new monetary and exchange-rate structure had a negative impact.”
On a month-on-month basis, economic activity likely fell in March due to those factors, according to analysts.
But in April, much of that uncertainty was cleared up, Mari said. In the month, Argentina sealed a $20 billion deal with the IMF, lifted capital controls and loosened its grip on trading of the peso currency.
“Going forward, the situation looks much more orderly,” said consultancy Orlando Ferreres & Asociados.
“In the short term, we should see growth factors such as higher household incomes, increased productive investment and a slowdown in inflation, once again driving economic growth,” the consulting firm added.
Argentina’s national statistics agency INDEC is set to release economic activity data on Wednesday afternoon (1900 GMT).
(Reporting by Hernan Nessi; Writing by Kylie Madry; Editing by Alistair Bell)
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