BERLIN (Reuters) -Consumer sentiment in Germany is set to rise slightly heading into October, while remaining in negative territory, as households’ brighter view of their income prospects offset the downward trend in recent months, a survey showed on Thursday.
The consumer sentiment index, published by the GfK market research institute and the Nuremberg Institute for Market Decisions (NIM), rose to -22.3 points in October from a slightly upwardly revised -23.5 points in September, beating a forecast of analysts polled by Reuters for a reading of -23.3 points.
A rise in income expectations, which leaped by 11 points from the month before to reach 15 points, was the main driver of the increase in overall sentiment, though NIM consumer analyst Rolf Buerkl was sceptical of whether it marked a turnaround.
“The geopolitical situation, job concerns and rising inflation fears are likely to stand in the way of a comprehensive recovery at the moment,” Buerkl warned.
By contrast, economic expectations for the next 12 months continued to fall for a third month in a row, dipping to -1.4 points from 2.7 the month before, while the willingness to buy decreased to -11.6 points, its lowest point since June 2024.
OCT SEP OCT
2025 2025 2024
Consumer climate -22.3 -23.5 -21.0
Consumer climate components
SEP AUG SEP
2025 2025 2024
– economic expectations -1.4 2.7 0.7
– income expectations 15.1 4.1 10.1
– willingness to buy -11.6 -10.1 -6.9
– willingness to save 16.1 15.8 12.0
NOTE – The survey period was September 4-8, 2025.
An indicator reading above zero signals year-on-year growth in private consumption. A value below zero indicates a drop compared with the same period a year earlier.
According to GfK, a one-point change in the indicator corresponds to a year-on-year change of 0.1% in private consumption.
The “willingness to buy” indicator represents the balance between positive and negative responses to the question: “Do you think now is a good time to buy major items?”
The income expectations sub-index reflects expectations about the development of household finances in the coming 12 months.
The additional business cycle expectations index reflects respondents’ assessment of the general economic situation over the next 12 months.
($1 = 0.8618 euros)
(Reporting by Miranda Murray)
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