By Elena Fabrichnaya and Gleb Bryanski
MOSCOW (Reuters) – The Russian central bank is seen keeping the key interest rate on hold at 21% at its meeting on March 21 while the rouble is seen retreating after the rally at the start of the year, a Reuters poll of 11 economists showed on Friday.
The central bank’s governor Elvira Nabiullina said this week that the interest rate is at the appropriate level to stop inflation from accelerating, while a turnaround in factors affecting prices is being observed.
The central bank raised its benchmark interest rate to 21% last year, the highest since the early 2000s, to cool the economy and reduce inflation, which is currently running at about 10%.
Economists saw the rate of inflation falling to a median of 7% by the end of the year from the current rate of around 10%, compared with 6.8% seen in the previous poll.
The Russian rouble has strengthened by around 22% against the dollar so far this year and by 10% since the start of February, mostly due to expectations of better relations with the United States and an eventual peaceful settlement in Ukraine.
“Any positive geopolitical news will be an important disinflationary factor,” said Dmitry Polevoy of Astra Asset Management.
The rouble is seen retreating from the multi-month highs of around 87 to the dollar it had reached during the rally to a median of 93 to the dollar by the end of March and to 105 to the dollar in 12 months from now.
“In January-February, the rouble exhibited abnormal strength. We expect that in the coming weeks the rouble will stay possessed by the geopolitical headlines and volatility,” Rosbank’s Evgeny Koshelev said.
Economic growth is seen slowing down to 1.7% in 2025, the same as in the previous poll. The Russian economy grew by 4.1% in 2024.
(Reporting by Elena Fabrichnaya and Gleb Bryanski; Editing by Emelia Sithole-Matarise)
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